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1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
This poll was to gauge how the people of Nevada would be voting.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
You subtract and add 4.8%, so his range is 20.2% to 29.8%
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.Sanders has surged in a number of national and state polls, and ahead of the Nevada caucuses, many have noted that he’s made strong investments in the state and has unrivaled support from Latino voters. But, that margin of error means Biden could actually top the field in the state; and broadly, Nevada is a state that is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?Biden in the lead with 19% support, Sanders with 18%, and their nearest competitor — Warren — 8% behind. But another taken at the beginning of January showed Biden coming in with 23% support and Sanders at 17%, with Warren and Steyer 5% behind.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?After the 2004 election, the state switched from holding primaries to caucuses.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
The difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?The Iowa caucuses are a well-established tradition dating back to the 1970s, but Nevada’s caucuses are relatively new. The relative newness of the caucuses means that pollsters have not had time to build the sort of infrastructure and state expertise that was developed over decades in Iowa.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?In large part due to its heavy reliance on the tourism and casino industries. Nevada’s population can be transient, and can wax and wane seasonally.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
The need for pollsters to have staff conducting field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means it is substantially more expensive.
This poll was to gauge how the people of Nevada would be voting.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
You subtract and add 4.8%, so his range is 20.2% to 29.8%
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.Sanders has surged in a number of national and state polls, and ahead of the Nevada caucuses, many have noted that he’s made strong investments in the state and has unrivaled support from Latino voters. But, that margin of error means Biden could actually top the field in the state; and broadly, Nevada is a state that is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?Biden in the lead with 19% support, Sanders with 18%, and their nearest competitor — Warren — 8% behind. But another taken at the beginning of January showed Biden coming in with 23% support and Sanders at 17%, with Warren and Steyer 5% behind.5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?After the 2004 election, the state switched from holding primaries to caucuses.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
The difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?The Iowa caucuses are a well-established tradition dating back to the 1970s, but Nevada’s caucuses are relatively new. The relative newness of the caucuses means that pollsters have not had time to build the sort of infrastructure and state expertise that was developed over decades in Iowa.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
The state also has a newly instituted four-day early voting period that attempts to model caucusing by using a system modeled on ranked-choice voting.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
The need for pollsters to have staff conducting field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means it is substantially more expensive.
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